How do I know? The USD/AUD exchange rate has the USD back on top. I still habitually check that exchange rate, and every time the AUD loses some of its heights, it turns out something bad is happening in Europe. I don't know enough about the currency markets to know much of anything about why this is. I can speculate that the dynamic is: AUD is fun and awesome as long as China doesn't crash, and if the EU goes offline, China will probably crash, and then the US is our only hope.
Anyway, the long steady drive to where the AUD now buys slightly less than 1USD seems to me to be a pretty disturbing predictor of where things are headed in Greece.
May the currency gods be wrong!
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